Modeling Electricity Markets as Two-Stage Capacity Constrained Price Competition Games under Uncertainty

The last decade has seen an increasing application of game theoretic tools in the analysis of electricity markets and the strategic behavior of market players. This paper focuses on the model examined by Fabra et al. (2008), where the market is described by a two-stage game with the firms choosing their capacity in the first stage and then competing in prices in the second stage. By allowing the firms to endogenously determine their capacity, through the capacity investment stage of the game, they can greatly affect competition in the subsequent pricing stage. Extending this model to the demand uncertainty case gives a very good candidate for modeling the strategic aspect of the investment decisions in an electricity market. After investigating the required assumptions for applying the model in electricity markets, we present some numerical examples of the model on the resulting equilibrium capacities, prices and profits of the firms. We then proceed with two results on the minimum value of price caps and the minimum required revenue from capacity mechanisms in order to induce adequate investments

The Greek Capacity Adequacy Mechanism: Design, Incentives, Strategic Behavior and Regulatory Remedies

This paper describes and analyzes the Greek Capacity Market or, as named, the “Capacity Adequacy Mechanism”. A detailed description of the recently established mechanism is given, whose design is a hybrid model combining elements from three different designs: the US Capacity Markets, the Capacity Payment Mechanisms and the Centralized Auctions for Capacity Contracts. Next, the goals of this design are explained. In the case of Greece the goals are not restricted just to the so-called “missing money” problem, therefore an analysis follows examining the incentives given to the market participants. The analysis shows the dependence of the mechanism on mainly two factors: the over/under-capacity of the market and the strategic behavior of the market participants, especially of the incumbent. In general, the Capacity Adequacy Mechanism is expected to operate quite satisfactory, giving the “right” incentives to the market participants. Some minor amendments to the rules are proposed, aiming to further increase its efficiency.Capacity Mechanisms, Electricity Markets, Mechanism Design, Strategic Behavior

SEE Regional Wholesale Market Design: Recommendations, Available Options and Implementation

In 2005 the countries of South East Europe (SEE) committed themselves to develop a regional energy market in SEE. The World Bank offered to provide technical assistance and recommendations for the most effective implementation of the electricity wholesale market opening. This paper presents and discusses the main proposals of the Study for the SEE Regional Market Design. It then proceeds to the provision of recommendations on how the Study’s proposals can be enhanced and fit better to the current status of the SEE markets.South East Europe, Regional Electricity Market, Market Design.

Modeling Electricity Markets as Two-Stage Capacity Constrained Price Competition Games under Uncertainty

The last decade has seen an increasing application of game theoretic tools in the analysis of electricity markets and the strategic behavior of market players. This paper focuses on the model examined by Fabra et al. (2008), where the market is described by a two-stage game with the firms choosing their capacity in the first stage and then competing in prices in the second stage. By allowing the firms to endogenously determine their capacity, through the capacity investment stage of the game, they can greatly affect competition in the subsequent pricing stage. Extending this model to the demand uncertainty case gives a very good candidate for modeling the strategic aspect of the investment decisions in an electricity market. After investigating the required assumptions for applying the model in electricity markets, we present some numerical examples of the model on the resulting equilibrium capacities, prices and profits of the firms. We then proceed with two results on the minimum value of price caps and the minimum required revenue from capacity mechanisms in order to induce adequate investments.Capacity Constraints; Electricity Markets; Regulatory Policy; Strategic Behaviour;

Evaluating the New Greek Electricity Market Rules

The Greek Regulatory Authority for Energy (RAE), in view of the initiation of the new wholesale electricity market on January 1st 2009 as a Day-Ahead mandatory pool, undertook the design and implementation of a simulator for the market. The simulator consists of several interacting modules representing all key market operations and dynamics including day-ahead scheduling, natural gas system constraints, unplanned variability of loads and available capacity driven either by uncertain stochastic outcomes or deliberate participant schedule deviations, real time dispatch, and financial settlement of day ahead and real-time schedule differences. The modules are integrated into one software package. The intended use of the simulator is to elaborate on and allow RAE to investigate the impact of participant decision strategies on market outcomes. The ultimate purpose is to evaluate the effectiveness of Market Rules, whether existing or contemplated, in providing incentives for competitive behaviour and in discouraging gaming and market manipulation. In this paper the simulator is used to analyze market design aspects and rules concerning the co-optimization of energy and reserves in the Day-Ahead energy market and the efficiency of the imbalance settlement procedure compared to real-time pricing.Electricity Market Design; Market Simulation; Regulation; Unit Commitment

Developing a simulator for the Greek electricity market

Following the liberalization of the Greek electricity market, the Greek Regulatory Authority for Energy (RAE) undertook the design and implementation of a simulator for the wholesale market and its interactions with the Natural Gas Transportation System. The simulator consists of several interacting modules representing all key market operations and dynamics including (i) day-ahead scheduling based on bids of market participants, (ii) natural gas system constraints, (iii) unplanned variability of loads and available capacity driven either by uncertain stochastic outcomes or deliberate participant schedule deviations, (iv) real time dispatch, and (v) financial settlement of day ahead and real time schedule differences. The modules are integrated into one software package capable of simulating all market dynamics, deliberate or probabilistic, and their interactions across all relevant time scales. The intended use of the simulator is to elaborate on and allow RAE to investigate the impact of participant decision strategies on market outcomes. The ultimate purpose is to evaluate the effectiveness of Market Rules, whether existing or contemplated, in providing incentives for competitive behaviour and in discouraging gaming and market manipulation. This paper describes the development of the simulator relative to the current Greek Electricity Market Design and key contemplated revisions.simulation; regulatory policy; electricity markets; market design;

The Greek Capacity Adequacy Mechanism: Design, Incentives, Strategic Behavior and Regulatory Remedies

This paper describes and analyzes the Greek Capacity Market or, as named, the “Capacity Adequacy Mechanism”. A detailed description of the recently established mechanism is given, whose design is a hybrid model combining elements from three different designs: the US Capacity Markets, the Capacity Payment Mechanisms and the Centralized Auctions for Capacity Contracts. Next, the goals of this design are explained. In the case of Greece the goals are not restricted just to the so-called “missing money” problem, therefore an analysis follows examining the incentives given to the market participants. The analysis shows the dependence of the mechanism on mainly two factors: the over/under-capacity of the market and the strategic behavior of the market participants, especially of the incumbent. In general, the Capacity Adequacy Mechanism is expected to operate quite satisfactory, giving the “right” incentives to the market participants. Some minor amendments to the rules are proposed, aiming to further increase its efficiency

The Greek Capacity Adequacy Mechanism: Design, Incentives, Strategic Behavior and Regulatory Remedies

This paper describes and analyzes the Greek Capacity Market or, as named, the “Capacity Adequacy Mechanism”. A detailed description of the recently established mechanism is given, whose design is a hybrid model combining elements from three different designs: the US Capacity Markets, the Capacity Payment Mechanisms and the Centralized Auctions for Capacity Contracts. Next, the goals of this design are explained. In the case of Greece the goals are not restricted just to the so-called “missing money” problem, therefore an analysis follows examining the incentives given to the market participants. The analysis shows the dependence of the mechanism on mainly two factors: the over/under-capacity of the market and the strategic behavior of the market participants, especially of the incumbent. In general, the Capacity Adequacy Mechanism is expected to operate quite satisfactory, giving the “right” incentives to the market participants. Some minor amendments to the rules are proposed, aiming to further increase its efficiency

SEE Regional Wholesale Market Design: Recommendations, Available Options and Implementation

In 2005 the countries of South East Europe (SEE) committed themselves to develop a regional energy market in SEE. The World Bank offered to provide technical assistance and recommendations for the most effective implementation of the electricity wholesale market opening. This paper presents and discusses the main proposals of the Study for the SEE Regional Market Design. It then proceeds to the provision of recommendations on how the Study’s proposals can be enhanced and fit better to the current status of the SEE markets

Impact of Reserve and Fixed Costs on the Day-Ahead Scheduling Problem in Greece’s Electricity Market

We sketch the main aspects of Greece’s electricity system from a market-based point of view. First, we provide data concerning the mix of generating units, the system load and the frequency-related ancillary services. Then, we formulate a simplified model of Greece’s Day-Ahead Scheduling (DAS) problem that constitutes the basis for our analysis. We examine various cases concerning the format of the objective function as well as the pricing and compensation schemes. An illustrative example is used to indicate the impact of reserve and fixed (start-up, shut-down, and minimum-load) costs on the resulting dispatching of units and on clearing prices, under the different cases. Our analysis aims at unveiling the impact of cost components other than energy offers on the DAS problem, and provide the grounds for future research on the design of the electricity market.Electricity Market, Day-Ahead Scheduling